The odds of Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential elections have significantly fluctuated since his campaign announcement in November of last year. In light of his arraignment a few hours ago in New York, where he pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, the team of SuperBettingSites decided to see what bookmakers have to say about Trump’s current chances of repeating his presidency.
According to bookmakers, the implied probability of Donald Trump stepping into the White House again decreased compared to November last year. Before his arraignment, the average odds were 11/5 (31.3% probability); now, they stand at 11/4 (26.7% probability).
Top 3 Favourites to Win the 2024 Presidential Election (As of April 5, 2023)
1. Joe Biden - average odds - 7/4
2. Donald Trump - average odds - 11/4
3. Ron DeSantis - average odds - 7/2
In percentage terms, the market predicts a 26.7% implied probability that Trump will run for a second term. The winning chances of his main rival for the Republican vote, Ron DeSantis, are estimated at 22.2% while Biden is currently leading with 36.4%.
So What Makes Trump's Chances of Winning the 2024 Presidential Election Decrease?
* Legal Issues
Donald Trump made a brilliant move by announcing his candidacy at the end of 2022, around two years before the elections. At first, his unrelenting enthusiasm and considerable financial resources bode well for him. In December 2022, his and Biden's odds were not far apart, and some bookmakers even gave them equal chances.
However, the lawsuits against Trump fueled scepticism over his credibility to step into the White House again. The next hearing has been scheduled for December 4, 2023. An eventual conviction will not legally prevent Trump from running for president.
* Strong In-Party Competition
While compiling this report, we also checked the situation within the Republican Party. According to bookmakers, Trump has a better chance (54.1% probability) of representing the party in the presidential elections than Ron DeSantis (30.8% probability).
Let us not forget, however, that the 46th governor of Florida has not officially announced his candidacy. This will likely happen when more details emerge about Trump's alleged crimes, undoubtedly affecting DeSantis' changes favourably.
* January 6, 2021 (United States Capitol Attack)
Despite the focus on the current legal situation of Trump, this is not the only problem ahead of him. The cloud of January 6, 2021, hovers overhead. Sooner or later, his actions or lack thereof will catch up to Trump, and he will have somehow to defend his role in the Capitol Hill riots.
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