Updated: Jul 24
The team at SuperBettingSites conducted a study to examine how the odds for the winner of the next presidential election have evolved in the past year. The recent indictment scandal surrounding one of the prime candidates, Donald Trump, sparked our interest in this topic.
Joe Biden to Win the 2024 US Presidential Elections Odds
* April 2023: +183 (35.3% implied probability)
* January 2023: +258 (27.9% implied probability)
* November 2022: +516 (16.2% implied probability)
* April 2022: +450 (18.2% implied probability)
According to sportsbooks' odds, Joe Biden, the current President of the United States, is the favourite to lead in the heated race for the 2024 Presidential Elections. The 46th US President's odds currently stand at an average value of +183. Eager to find out how Biden's odds have fluctuated over the past year, we also looked into some archived figures.
As per data from the Wayback Machine, the Democrat's reelection odds reflect a positive tendency. The Implied Probability based on the average values from 12 months ago shows an upward trend from 18.2% to 35.3% as of today.
Donald Trump to Win the 2024 US Presidential Elections Odds
* April 2023: +250 (28.6% implied probability)
* January 2023: +875 ( 10.3% implied probability)
* November 2022: +241 (29.3% implied probability)
* April 2022: +250 (28.6% implied probability)
As of April 2023, bookies deem Donald Trump as the second most likely candidate to ascend to the presidential position in the 2024 US elections, as his odds average out at +250. The prognosis is less favourable towards the political figure than we witnessed in late 2022, seeing as his odds in November 2022 were +241.
His current situation is still considerably improving his odds in January 2023. At the time, they had skyrocketed to +875. This, however, might change in the upcoming months. As Donald Trump appeared at the courthouse on April 05, 2023, to face 34 felony charges, he pleaded not guilty and claimed that political interests propelled the case against him. The next court hearing is scheduled for December.
Ron DeSantis to Win the 2024 US Presidential Elections Odds
* April 2023: +350 (22.2% implied probability)
* January 2023: +167 (37.5% implied probability)
* November 2022: +319 (23.9% implied probability)
* April 2022: +580 (14.7% implied probability)
Ron DeSantis, the 46th Governor of Florida, currently ranks third regarding the prospects of assuming the nation's highest office. From 14.7% 12 months ago, his implied probability of becoming the 47th President of the United States surged to 23.9% in November 2022 and 37.5% in January 2023.
However, we can see a downward trend in his support, with his chances of success declining to 22.2%.
Considering the above figures and the topics currently trending in international media outlets concerning the forthcoming US Presidential Elections, we can draw several conclusions:
Odds Point Towards Biden Despite Possible Setbacks
Many politicians and voters have expressed concerns regarding Biden's advanced age, especially at the time of his potential inauguration оn January 20, 2025. Bookies do not miss the chance to offer punters a variety of betting markets covering other noteworthy Democratic presidential candidates.
The Indictment of Trump
With Donald Trump becoming the first former US president to face indictment in court, bookies are hesitant to lower the odds attached to his potential victory. Although a criminal record will not, legally, prevent him from running for the presidential position, the situation is expected to shift public opinion of the political figure negatively.
Ron DeSantis Was the Bookies' Clear Frontrunner in January 2023
In January 2023, when Ron DeSantis' odds of winning America's presidential race stood at +167, the chances of both Biden's and Trump's respective victories took a downward turn. January 03 saw Ron DeSantis' reelection as Florida's Governor. This success, along with his speech and promises, likely gave bookies and punters the confidence that he would also succeed nationally.
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